Russia War: China and India refrained from joining the faction which vociferously condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While India remained steadfast in its independent stand, ensuring sovereign and commercial interest for the country, China preferred to keep mum. India could withstand international pressure with aplomb and self-esteem, while China largely remained absent from International dialogues.
After months of refusing to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine, the two countries appeared shifting their stance in the recent G-20 meeting while remaining concomitant to the statement by the world’s leading economies that strongly criticize Moscow.
This could be an indicator of a new strategy, although audacious, by New Delhi and Beijing that will align them with the United States and its allies. And this latest move of the duo could herald a new beginning for ending the war which has brought fatality and despair to millions in Ukraine and displaced millions of lives. It has also fragmented the entire globe into two hostile power blocs and created unprecedented energy crises coupled with soaring food prices. The world today is impatient and already fatigued by the war, and must welcome the beginning of a shift between the two global powers.
1st Statement from Modi and Jinping against Russia
The official statements by China and India, although Modi’s statement carried enough subtlety, during the G-20 summit in Bali, carried a candid message for Russia to withdraw forces and end the war at the earliest.
Now, since they have taken a stand, the coming weeks may see more clarity with convictions, although they will continue to be Russia’s ally in terms of significant trading partners while ensuring their fiduciary interests.
Russia to think seriously on the issue of withdrawal
Russia will now have to ponder seriously without the tacit support of China and India, and an amicable solution looks inevitable. The indirect pressure from India and China will make it obligatory for Russia to build up its mind for withdrawing its forces from Ukraine; the modalities of withdrawal are required to be worked out.
1st International summit focused on Ukrainian invasion
The two-day summit in Bali mainly focused on the Russian invasion and the presence of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov with all top world leaders joining the voice of dissent and condemnation is ought to bear positive results from the Russian side. This is the first congregation of all global leaders to come together and voice their concerns in unison in the presence of a Russian top leader. The united voice of the world would be very hard to be evaded.
The joint statement issued “Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy,” should send strong signals to Russia.
India wields enormous global power – Germany
The public statement of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gave enough indications of India’s prowess and clout in influencing Russia the withdrawal of its army. He said the G-20 summit’s “surprisingly clear words” on Ukraine “wouldn’t have been possible if important countries hadn’t helped us to come together this way — that includes India.
Olaf Scholz further added “This is something which shows that there are many in the world who don’t think this war is right, who condemn it, even if they abstained in the votes at the United Nations for various reasons,” “And I am sure that this is one of the results of this summit: the Russian President stands almost alone in the world with his policy.”
G-20 Director also proclaims India’s international influence
John Kirton, Director of the G-20 Research Group, called it a “big breakthrough” and an “active shift” by India and China in which they joined the “democratic side of the great immediate geopolitical divide.”
Privately, however, some diplomats were wary about declaring that China has shifted its stance on Russia.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping may have simply decided to not be seen as a spoiler or outlier during face-to-face meetings with other leaders in Bali. The statement also allows China to avoid going all-in with a Russia that is looking more and more isolated as it increases attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure.
For India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also avoided criticism of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Modi, however, indicated for the first time in public India’s discomfort with the attack when he met Putin in September.
“I know that today’s era is not of war,” Modi told Putin.
That message of PM Narendra Modi will carry positive pressure on Putin
That message of PM Narendra Modi “resonated very deeply across all the delegations and helped to bridge the gap across different parties and contributed to the successful outcome of the document” in Bali, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra told reporters.
Navdeep Suri, a retired Indian diplomat, said he sees a subtle shift in India’s position in dealing with Russia.
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China, however, may be “in a far more awkward position than India because China is the one that promised unlimited support to Russia a few days before the invasion,” China has (now) gone along with such tough language, including the unconditional and complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine.”
India will continue to buy oil, trade with Russia and abstain from U.N. resolutions critical of Russia. And this is the bravado of India that has its own way, its independent stand and there should not be any policy shift by India other than its stance on Ukraine.
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