Poor Monsoon Rainfall: In the last 122 years, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand have never experienced such poor monsoon rainfall. Farmers in the two states expect a good spell to take up sowing, the administration is finalising plans to tackle the ensuing situation. Food and water scarcity are going to be the real matter in the country’s major rice producing states, with a possibility to influence India’s kharif produce this year.
The worst monsoon season of the century is experienced by Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh.
The rainfall recorded over Jharkhand was 371.9mm between June 1 and August 12 against a normal of 627.6mm. This is the lowest rainfall ever recorded since 1901 over Jharkhand (June to August), the IMD’s rainfall data declared. Jharkhand experienced such poor rainfall only twice before in the last 122 years.
As for Uttar Pradesh, the picture is also serious, as it has recorded only 251.7mm of the seasonal average of 449.1mm till August 12.
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Uttar Pradesh is the most rain deficient Indian State of this year and has remained since the start of the monsoon season.
Uttar Pradesh driest monsoon months- June to August- were during 1987 (349.3mm), 2009 (365mm), 1996 (392mm), 2014 (394.3mm), and 1972 (424.3mm) between 1901 and 2021.
The 19 districts of Jharkhand Except Dhanbad, East Singhbhum, West Singhbhum, and Giridih and Saraikela have not experienced normal rainfall during any of the past 10 monsoon weeks, the IMD’s week-wise rainfall reveled.
The driest districts in Jharkhand this season include Pakur, Jamtara and Sahebganj, Godda, Chatra, Garhwa, Deoghar, Latehar, Palamu and Dumka, Lohardaga, Giridih, Koderma, Sindega and Hazaribagh, and Dhanbad and Gumla.
The worst influenced district in Uttar Pradesh include Farrukhabad, Jaunpur, Kanpur Dehat, Mau, Chandauli, Ballia and Bahraich, Basti, Amethi, Banda and Ayodhya.
On 11 August by the Central Water Commission’s reservoir storage report stated that the water reserves in the six major reservoirs in Jharkhand was 0.594 Billion Cubic Metre against a 10-year average of 1.18 BCM. The available water stocks calculated only 30 per cent of the total storage capacity. For comparison, the same stocks at this time last year were 78 per cent of the total storage capacity.
UP’s water body have filled up eight dams to 28 per cent of the total storage capacity. It was 53 per cent in 2021. The current water reserve is 2.15BCM against a 10-year average of 3.09BCM.
In a departure from the norm of overflowing Ganges and flooding, the 2022 monsoon has been anything but usual for Bihar. Bihar has recorded 376.5mm versus a normal of 602.6mm and a deficit of 38 per cent, till August 12 during the ongoing season.
The 2022 monsoon could happen to be Bihar’s worst — only once before, in 1972, the state during June to August received 375mm. Previously bad monsoon seasons for these three months have been in 2010 (466.6mm), 2013 (50.32mm), 2012 (573.9mm) and 1992 (588.7mm).
Generally, since 1903 the month of July was the driest over the East and Northeast India. Since the monsoon arrival, Manipur, Tripura and West Bengal remain in the rainfall ‘deficient’ list. The east and northeast India regions like Assam and Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh have recorded normal rainfall this monsoon season.
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What are the long-term monsoon trends?
Jharkhand: Amount to the highest rainfall during the monsoon season at 31 per cent in July and 28 per cent in August. Between June and September, 84 per cent of the state’s annual rainfall occurs.
In June, Rainfall has been reduced over Garhwa, Chatra and Koderma districts. A similar reducing trend in September was noticed over Chatra, Koderma, Godda, Sahebganj and Dhanbad districts.
There appeared no trend and no district showed an rise in rainfall during the monsoon season for July and August.
Rainfall over Garhwa, Chatra, Koderma, Godda, Sahebganj, Dhanbad, Bokaro and Simdega districts have been on a decreased during the southwest monsoon season, the IMD’s report on rainfall variability over Jharkhand (1989-2018) revealed. The annual rainfall has been declining in late decades which are about 1211.4mm.
The highest number of rainy days ranges between 46 and 50 days during the period June to September. This was mainly restricted to Gumla, Simdega, West Singhbhum, East Singhbhum, Dhanbad, Jamtara and Pakur districts.
Uttar Pradesh: The monsoon seasonal rainfall happens in July- 34 per cent and 31 per cent in August. During the June to September months, 89 per cent of the annual rainfall is noticed.
According to the IMD’s report on rainfall variability over Uttar Pradesh (1989-2018), During the southwest monsoon, there is a decreasing rainfall quantum season and in the total annual rainfall. During June, July and August, there is an insignificant rainfall rising trend noticed, while during September, the rainfall has been significantly decreasing.
Across the southwest monsoon season, Gorakhpur district experienced the highest rainfall in UP.
Districts in the northeast of Uttar Pradesh (except Khushi Nagar and Ballia) in comparison to districts in the southwest experienced high rainfall amounts.
Rainfall between 421-560 mm is frequently received over Baghpat, Bulandshahar, Aligarh, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar, Etah, Ayodhya, Agra, Etawah, Kannauj, Auraiya, Kanpur Dehat, Kanpur, Mahoba, Rae Bareli, Kaushambi and Khushi Nagar districts during the southwest monsoon season.
During June to September, the lowest rainfall was recorded over Mathura, Auraiya, Rae Bareli and Mahoba.
Bihar: In August, 33 per cent of Bihar’s monsoonal rainfall in July and 28 per cent happens. Between June and September, More than 85 per cent of the annual rainfall is realized.
Rainfall during the June to September period has been declining, according to the IMD’s rainfall variability over Bihar (1989-2018) report.
During the southwest monsoon season, Kishanganj, Arariya, Purnia and West Champaran experienced the highest rainfall. The seasonal and annual rainfall over districts along Bihar’s southwest is lesser than the other regions in the state.
What are the causes for rain deficit?
This season only three low pressure systems evolved in the Bay of Bengal, mainly off the coast of Odisha. None of these systems affect Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh or Bihar. Thus, one of the two rain-bearing causes last out of favor for these states.
The monsoon trough, an east-west low-pressure region that extends from the heat low over Pakistan to the head of the Bay of Bengal, has also so far this year lingered south of its normal location for the majority of the days in July and August.
According to Pulak Guhathakurta, head of the Climate Research Division at IMD, Pune, “the low pressure systems did not migrate along Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh.”
He emphasised that these unfavourable conditions were a factor in the season’s substantial rainfall deficits.
The position, oscillation, and duration of the monsoon trough over a particular area all have a direct impact on the amount of rainfall that occurs in the areas directly to its south.
This means that most of central and peninsular India experiences active or intense rainfall when it is placed to the south of its normal position. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and the northeastern states profit when it moves north of its usual position or is located in the foothills of the Himalayas.
What should farmers do?
The Agriculture Meteorology division of Uttar Pradesh has recommended using short-duration rice varieties and recommending delaying rice transplantation until August 15. Red gramme planting is advised by experts.
We advise farmers to use short-duration rice varieties and intercrop, according to Kripan Ghosh, head of IMD’s Agriculture Meteorology division.
The Agriculture Meteorology division of Uttar Pradesh has recommended using short-duration rice varieties and recommending delaying rice transplantation until August 15. Red gramme planting is advised by experts. We advise farmers to use short-duration rice varieties and intercrop, according to Kripan Ghosh, head of IMD’s Agriculture Meteorology division.
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