Lok Sabha Election 2024: The Congress’ hopes for a comeback after victories in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka were dashed when the party lost three important states to the BJP, making its path to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections uncertain. This also bodes ill for the newly created INDIA alliance, whose fate is entwined with the Congress‘s in its fight against the Modi regime.
The Struggle in 200-Plus LS Seats Against BJP
If the Congress remains a deadwood against the BJP in the 200-plus LS seats where the two parties will face off, even excellent showing by regional parties will not be enough to propel the bloc forward. The Gandhis’ leadership paradigm, which is based on inheritance, typically comes with all rights and no obligations, which shields them from the burden of defeats and the aftermath of failed experiments, leaving the party to deal with the consequences.
In the midst of all the political uncertainty, former party president Rahul Gandhi has opted to embark on yet another yatra. This comes after the poll results denied Rahul, who co-led the campaign with his sister Priyanka, the opportunity to attribute ‘expected gains’ to his Bharat Jodo yatra and caste-census-OBC platform. It remains to be seen how far the repackaged East-West (bus) Yatra-2 will take the party.
Concerns Raised Over Timing of Yatra-2 Announcement
The yatra was announced despite some CWC members warning at the December 21 meeting that the LS election was too close to start on another yatra, that it might clash with the BJP’s build-up for the Ram temple opening, and that Yatra-2 would lack the novelty of its first episode.
Clear Signal from Mamata and Kejriwal Excludes Rahul from PM Face List
While Rahul and Priyanka may have sway over the party’s nominated functionaries, INDIA bloc leaders Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal sent a clear signal that Rahul does not even figure in the bloc’s probable “PM face” list when they deftly proposed Kharge’s name as “Dalit PM candidate.” While the INDIA group embarks on seat-sharing talks, it remains to be seen whether any thorny allies would stick with or pull out amid the tug of seat haggling.
Congress and INDIA Alliance’s Challenge
The task for the Congress and INDIA alliance is to oppose three powerful planks: Modi’s leadership, the Hindutva-Nationalist appeal, and the reach of the government’s enabling initiatives. To avoid the ‘Modi factor,’ the AICC has been promoting that the Congress and INDIA alliance do not want to make this election a struggle between two PM faces, and that the Opposition bloc will rather choose its PM after the election. Many in the opposition, however, remain concerned that the BJP will turn Yatra-2 into a ‘Modi vs. Rahul-3’ LS election.
INDIA Bloc’s Prepared List of Seat Demands Across States
As the coalition partners prepare to begin seat-sharing talks for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the INDIA bloc parties are preparing for aggressive bargaining and extracting a significant number of seats from the Congress. The INDIA bloc parties have prepared demands for seats across states as the Mukul Wasnik-led national alliance committee of the Congress has begun reaching out to them.
Following the Congress’ poor performance in the recent assembly elections in the three Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, MP, and Chhattisgarh, the partners have taken a more aggressive attitude and are eyeing a significant number of LS seats.
West Bengal Conundrum
In West Bengal, the Congress faces a difficult challenge: it cannot join the Left Front without alienating Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress. According to Trinamool sources, the party is only willing to give up two of the 42 congressional seats. Trinamool currently holds 22 seats, BJP 18, and Congress 2. There are no seats in the Left Front. Aligning with Banerjee would position the Left Front against the Congress-Trinamool and force them to compete for all seats.
The Congress has eight MPs in Punjab and would like to run for all of them. However, the AAP would not give up a single seat in the state. It is willing to give up 2-3 seats in Delhi, where it is in power.
INDIA Group’s Strategy
The INDIA group leaders believe that focussing on bread-and-butter concerns will keep the electoral narrative away from ‘Modi vs who’ and emotive topics. However, the majority of non-Congress partners are one-state parties that cannot complement each other across states or improve Congress’ chances against the BJP in straight contests.
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