Exit Polls 2024: After six weeks of voting, the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 are almost over, and the exit polls show that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will win impressively. The elections, the second-longest elections since 1951–1952, suggests that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will serve a third straight term.
Understanding Exit Polls
In India the exit poll was first conduscted in 1957. Exit polls are surveys that are carried out right after voters have cast their ballots; they are usually done outside polling places. Before the official counting starts, they seek out voter preferences and forecast the outcome of the election. Voters are questioned for exit polls, which collect information on how and why they voted and offer insightful information on voting trends and patterns.
Accuracy of Exit Polls
Although exit polls are useful tools, there has been discussion over their accuracy. Their dependability may be impacted by variables including sample mistakes, methodological problems and unanticipated last-minute changes in voter behaviour. Exit surveys do, however, frequently provide a good forecast of election results and offer insightful information about voter behaviour, despite their limitations.
Exit Poll Predictions: NDA’s Dominance
Overall Seat Projections
According to seven major exit polls, the NDA is predicted to secure a significant majority in the Lok Sabha:
- India Today-Axis: NDA 361-401 seats, 131-166 for INDIA
- Dainik Bhaskar: NDA-285-350; INDIA bloc-145-201; Others-33-49
- India News-D-Dynamics: NDA-371; INDIA bloc: 125; Others-47
- Jan Ki Baat: NDA 362-392; INDIA bloc: 141-161; Others-10-20
- Republic Bharat-Matrize: NDA-353-368; INDIA bloc-118-133; Others-43-48
- Republic TV-P MARQ: NDA-359; INDIA bloc-154; Others-30
These numbers suggest that the BJP and its allies are on track to surpass their previous tally of 353 seats from the 2019 elections, with the BJP alone having won 303 seats back then. The BJP’s ambitious target of 370 seats and an overall goal of crossing 400 seats with its allies seems within reach.
Regional Breakdown
Karnataka and Maharashtra
The exit polls indicate a strong performance for the NDA in Karnataka and Maharashtra, reinforcing their dominance in these key states.
Kerala
The Left-led alliance is facing a significant rout in Kerala, with the NDA making inroads in the traditionally left-leaning state.
West Bengal
In West Bengal, the BJP is expected to improve its performance significantly. At least three exit polls predict that the BJP will emerge as the single-largest party in terms of Lok Sabha seats, surpassing their 2019 tally of 22 seats.
Northeast India
The India Today-Axis exit poll provides insights into the northeastern states:
- Sikkim: The Sikkim Democratic Front or the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha is expected to win the sole seat.
- Mizoram: Congress is predicted to secure the single seat.
- Nagaland: The INDIA alliance is likely to win the lone seat.
- Meghalaya: The National People’s Party and the Voice of People Party are predicted to split the two seats.
- Tripura: The NDA is set to win both seats.
Other Key States
Uttar Pradesh
In Uttar Pradesh, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll suggests that there won’t be a significant deviation in seat numbers compared to the 2019 elections. The exit poll projects 64–67 seats for the BJP-led NDA, indicating a continuation of its stronghold in India’s largest state. Additionally, the exit poll anticipates 7–9 seats for the Samajwadi Party and 1–3 seats for the Congress. Mayawati’s BSP is forecasted to win at most one seat.
Delhi
Delhi, the capital, has seven Lok Sabha seats. According to various exit polls, the BJP is predicted to perform strongly in Delhi, maintaining its influence. The India Today-Axis My India poll suggests that the BJP could win 5-6 seats, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress might secure 1-2 seats combined.
Rajasthan
According to News18, the NDA is expected to secure 16-19 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan, with the INDIA bloc winning only 5-7 seats.
Himalayan States
The India Today-Axis poll predicts a clean sweep for the NDA in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, securing all seats in these states. News18 corroborates this, suggesting the BJP will win 5-7 seats in Himachal Pradesh.
Major Gains and Losses
BJP Gains
- West Bengal: The BJP is set to see significant gains, potentially becoming the single-largest party in terms of seats, up from 22 seats in 2019.
- Northeast: The BJP-led NDA is predicted to secure dominant positions in northeastern states like Tripura.
- Himalayan States: A complete sweep in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh indicates substantial gains for the BJP.
INDIA Alliance Losses
- Kerala: The Left-led alliance is expected to suffer a major setback.
- Rajasthan: The INDIA bloc is projected to win significantly fewer seats compared to the NDA.
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