Exit Poll 2024: The voting for the crucial Assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir concluded yesterday, on October 5, 2024. As the counting day nears, exit polls are offering a glimpse into the likely outcomes. In Haryana, Congress is predicted to make a remarkable comeback, while in Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance seems poised to lead but may fall short of the majority mark. With potential wins, discussions have already begun on who could take the Chief Minister’s seat in both states.
Haryana Exit Polls 2024 Show Clear Lead for Congress
Exit polls in Haryana assembly election 2024 predict a significant victory for the Congress party, placing it far ahead of its main rival, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). After struggling in the previous elections, Congress seems to have found its footing this time. Most exit polls project Congress winning between 52 and 62 seats, comfortably above the majority mark of 46 in the 90-member Assembly.
| Polling Agency | Congress (Seats) | BJP (Seats) | JJP (Seats) | INLD (Seats) | Others (Seats) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dainik Bhaskar | 44-54 | 19-29 | 0-3 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| Republic-Matrize | 55-62 | 18-24 | 0-3 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| India Today-C Voter | 50-58 | 20-28 | 0-3 | 3-6 | 10-16 |
The Bharatiya Janata Party, which has ruled the state for the last two terms, appears to be falling behind, with exit polls predicting only 18-29 seats. Smaller parties like the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) are also not expected to make a significant mark this time.
Jammu and Kashmir Exit Polls 2024: NC-Congress Alliance Leads But May Fall Short
The exit polls in Jammu and Kashmir paint a more complex picture. The National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance is expected to emerge as the largest bloc but may still fall short of the majority mark of 46 seats in the 90-member Assembly.
| Polling Agency | NC-Congress (Seats) | BJP (Seats) | PDP (Seats) | Others (Seats) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India Today-C Voter | 40-48 | 23-27 | 6-12 | 6-11 |
| Axis My India | 35-45 | 24-34 | 4-6 | 8-27 |
| Peoples Pulse | 33-35 | 23-27 | 7-11 | 4-5 |
The alliance is projected to secure between 35 and 48 seats, while the BJP may get between 23 and 34 seats. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is expected to win a few seats, but not enough to change the game. Smaller parties and independents may play a crucial role in forming the government if no party crosses the majority line.
Who Will Be the CM in Haryana? Congress Faces Tough Choices
With exit polls predicting a clear win for Congress in Haryana, attention is shifting to who could take the Chief Minister’s chair. However, the Congress party is facing a potential internal struggle, as there are several strong contenders for the top post.
- Bhupinder Singh Hooda: The most prominent candidate is Bhupinder Singh Hooda, the former two-time Chief Minister of Haryana (2005–2014). He has led the Congress campaign and is seen as the strongest contender for the CM post. Hooda’s vast experience and leadership during the elections make him a front-runner.
- Kumari Selja: A powerful Dalit leader and former Union minister, Kumari Selja is also considered a strong candidate. She is known for her close ties with the Gandhis and could be the party’s choice if they opt for a leader from the Dalit community.
- Randeep Singh Surjewala: Rajya Sabha MP and a key figure in the Congress, Surjewala is another name being discussed. He played a crucial role in the party’s victory in the Karnataka elections and has expressed his desire to serve as Haryana’s CM. Surjewala has maintained that the final decision lies with the Congress high command.
- Deepender Hooda: Bhupinder Hooda’s son, Deepender Hooda, is another name in the mix. As a young and dynamic leader, he could be considered for the top role, especially if the party looks for a fresh face in leadership.
Who Will Be the CM in Jammu and Kashmir? NC-Congress Alliance Faces Uncertainty
In Jammu and Kashmir, the NC-Congress alliance has not yet declared a Chief Ministerial candidate. However, depending on which party secures more seats, here are a few possible names:
- Omar Abdullah (National Conference): A familiar face in Jammu and Kashmir politics, Omar Abdullah is a top contender if the National Conference gains more seats. He has previously served as the Chief Minister and remains a prominent political figure in the region.
- Tariq Hameed Karra (Congress): If the Congress gets a chance to nominate the CM, Tariq Hameed Karra could be their choice. Karra, who joined Congress in 2017 after serving as a member of the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is seen as a key leader in the state.
- Farooq Abdullah (National Conference): The veteran politician, and father of Omar Abdullah, Farooq Abdullah remains a significant figure in Jammu and Kashmir. If the National Conference decides to go with experience, he could be brought back as a CM candidate.
Political Turmoil in Haryana – Too Many CM Aspirants?
If Congress wins the Haryana Assembly elections, deciding the next Chief Minister could become a difficult task for the party. Multiple strong leaders are eyeing the top position, which could cause disagreements within the party. Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a two-time Chief Minister, is the front-runner. However, other influential leaders like Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala are also serious contenders for the role.
Kumari Selja is a prominent Dalit leader with close ties to the Gandhis, while Randeep Surjewala, a Rajya Sabha MP, is known for his significant role in the Congress’s success in the Karnataka elections. Deepender Hooda, Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s son, is also seen as a potential candidate. With so many big names, choosing a Chief Minister could lead to internal competition and intense lobbying among these leaders.
The final decision will rest with the Congress high command, particularly Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge. Once selected, the new Chief Minister will have the critical job of keeping the party united and fulfilling the promises made to voters during the campaign. Balancing all these expectations will be a key challenge for whoever takes the top spot.
Awaiting October 8 Results
As the election results will be announced on October 8, 2024, all eyes are on who will lead Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. The exit polls indicate a win for Congress in Haryana and a lead for the NC-Congress alliance in Jammu and Kashmir. But the final results will reveal the true outcome and decide who takes the helm in these key states.
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