US: The midterms will be the first real litmus test for the continued relevance of Donald Trump and Trumpism. There are a few things US President Joe Biden and Donald Trump have in common. Currently, both agree that US democracy is under attack. And each says that he is the one to save it.
Only one can be telling the truth as Americans go to the polls on November 8 to elect a third of their Senate and all House of Representative seats in Congress. While former President Trump warned in a recent speech in Pennsylvania that “the danger to democracy comes from the radical left” and “not the right,” President Biden promised Americans he “will not stand by and watch” while attempts are made to take “the freedom to vote and have your vote counted.”
Is it a referendum to what path the ‘Democracy of US’ will take its course?
Both see the upcoming midterm elections as a referendum on what path democracy will take in the US. Depending on the outcome, this vote could mark the beginning of election results being seen as a basis for finding the middle ground.
As the November 8 midterm elections in the United States approach, the pressure and anxiety among the Democrats and Republicans are escalating. Pre-poll analysis expects it to surpass the 2018 midterms when a record 122 million Americans voted ahead of Election Day. The midterms polls didn’t stir up so many apprehensions earlier – when congressional, state and local seats were determined – used to pass almost unnoticed, especially outside the US.
A litmus test for the continued relevance of ‘Trumpism’
Since 2018, they have become a matter of global concern. The 2022 midterm elections will be the first major elections in the US since the January 2021 rebellion that marked a violent escalation of Donald Trump’s “election denial” narrative. Now, almost two years after he lost the Presidential Election to Joe Biden, Trump continues to call for a “new election, immediately” as the “minimal solution.” As such, this will be the first real litmus test for the continued relevance of Donald Trump and Trumpism.
For both parties, winning is more important than ever as it doesn’t remain a matter of policy. Today, a majority of members of both parties – 72 per cent of Republicans and 63 per cent of Democrats – see those belonging to the opposing party as depraved, according to a Pew Research Center poll in September, representing a significant rise since 2016.
In many states, the midterms will have a direct impact on the 2024 Presidential Elections, influencing who decides how voting takes place, how votes are counted and, especially, who controls the certification of election results.
So, under the prevailing circumstances, the stakes in this election are exceptionally high. The winners will have the upper hand not only in defining many procedural rules but also in the values that constitute the nation, such as abortion rights, education and healthcare.
Republicans and Democrats align on most key foreign policies
The foreign policy will bear a strong similarity to the Trump era, if Republicans gain a majority in the House of Representatives, as many anticipate, the outcome of the elections on US global influence could impact efforts to combat climate change and support for Ukraine.
The Republicans are recognized for their apathy for climate concerns and at the same time their anti-immigrant rhetoric, time and again; many of its established leaders have set the tone for volatile times ahead in the US Senate. Besides, the failure to address rampant gun violence – and, instead, to defend a historically misplaced explanation of the right to carry arms – and the push for a national abortion ban mean that the party is imposing a version of America onto itself that is not in conformity with virtually all the civilized society across the world.
Domestic policy is likely to have more serious ramifications by the elections. A Republican majority in the House would stall the initiatives of President Biden in raising taxes. The drive to hold former President Trump accountable will also be affected by the choices voters make on November 8.A Republican majority in the House would spell an end to congressional investigations of Donald Trump.
On foreign policy, the parties are more aligned than divided on most of the key issues. Their differences are a matter of diplomacy and degree. Support for Ukraine has had bipartisan backing, but in recent weeks the issue has become politicized. Some congressional Republicans are more belligerent than their Democratic counterparts in their desire to support Ukraine.
The strong anti-China stance was consolidated under Trump by bipartisan support. He garnered the support of the US voters by blaming China for the loss of manufacturing jobs. Later his outspoken positioning of China as principally responsible for the outbreak of Covid and for covering it up carried a lot of support. China’s crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong, its brazenness in the South China Seas, tensions over Taiwan and reports of human rights abuse against the Uighur in Xinjiang have strengthened a bipartisan consensus on America’s China policy. The anti-China rhetoric would step up its momentum with a more empowered Republican.
During President Trump’s tenure, the Republican approach towards Vladimir Putin was far less critical. The recent Russian President’s aggressive invasion of Ukraine has ingrained American opposition to Putin and reinforced support for NATO.
The US policy towards Iran remains aligned towards both Democrats and Republicans today than they were before Trump abandoned the Iran Deal negotiating the Middle Eastern country’s nuclear programme. On some contentious issues, such as immigration reform, progress is already stalled and that is unlikely to change.
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US climate change policy may depend on the results
The Republicans are known for their apathy towards climate concerns. With empowered Republicans, we may witness more aggressive infighting and that would inevitably detract the US even further from the bold policy that is needed.
Serious trust deficit for democracies across the world including the US
Democracies face a trust deficit. This is especially apparent in the US where only 43 per cent of Americans have trust in US institutions, according to the 2022 Edelman Trust Barometer.
Internal threats to democracy also belittle the promise of US global leadership at a time when concerted and determined leadership is needed to maintain a strong and united response to tackle global food and energy insecurity, climate and debt crises. In addition, the failure to lead a global response that can help developing countries is feeding a trust deficit between rich and poor countries.
The midterms will expose a more unequivocal future of the Republican Party. Even more so, it will reveal the values held by the American electorate.
A Republican midterm victory in both the Senate and the House of Representatives may have ripple effects across the Atlantic at a time when the threat from Russia has intensified.
The US is judged around the world for what it does, but also for who it is. The perception that democracy is failing in America creates a permissive environment for aspiring autocrats like Kim Jong. At a time when democracy has been in decline around the world for more than 15 years, it is essential for the US to restructure its own democratic policies and practices that can establish trust to the rest of the world that democracy can still deliver.
The midterms will signal to the world what Americans value, sending a message about what it can expect from the US.
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