As the war in Ukraine continues, experts say that China is keenly watching the conflict unfolding for the past four months, in a bid to draw lessons for a possible invasion of Taiwan.
On his 69th birthday on June 15, Chinese President Xi Jinping called Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss strengthening bilateral relations between the two countries in the wake of the Ukraine conflict
Ukraine and Taiwan have a single thing is common: autocratic neighbours with a penchant for invading their land; people in Taiwan are hoping the similarities end there. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has elicited global outrage and pledges of support for the Ukrainian people. In Taiwan, it has also provoked an existential fear.
The Chinese President’s pledge to Moscow for more support on “sovereignty and security” is tantamount to the Chinese leader disdainfully dismissing all earlier warnings from the West that China risked significant reputational damage by not condemning the Kremlin.
The most troubling aspect for the Western leaders is that not only is China refusing to condemn Russia, but is also pledging to deepen strategic coordination between the two countries.
Writing for the Providence magazine Jianli Yang and Yan Yu pointed out that one of the main reasons why the US and NATO have thus far spared the rod with respect to the invasion of Ukraine is Putin’s nuclear threats.
“The lesson other nations have learned is that nuclear threats work,”
“Should an attempted Chinese conquest of Taiwan also enter a period of stalemate, preventing Chinese domestic anti-war activists from using international public opinion to enhance their strength and promote political change may be Xi’s first priority,” they added.
People in Taiwan have been shaken up by the news from Ukraine. As the relationship between China and the US keeps straining, Taiwanese officials and military analysts have warned of a growing risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
China claims the self-governed island as its own province and has vowed to reunite it with the mainland. The conversation has long been hypothetical; now, many Taiwanese have seen a version of their worst fears playing out in Europe. Taiwan sees itself as an independent country, with its own constitution and democratically-elected leaders.
China’s President Xi Jinping has said “reunification” with Taiwan “must be fulfilled” – and has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve this.
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