Yes, Covid is back again. No matter whether you believe it or not. And this time it is predictably fiercer than the 2020 pandemic. A very pertinent question that should haunt the common man, the reader of this post – is how it would affect China and the world including in particular Bangladesh, Pakistan and India as well. Will there be a lockdown again? Will there be a recession again? What will be the approach of the various medical services to combat the menace?
Meanwhile, China lost its initial battle against its fight against Covid19 of 2022, which had returned to haunt the country of its origin. In the beginning, China imposed strict restrictions to prevent the spread of Covid. It faced a revolt from its own people: and the revolt was violently against the incumbent government – people were furiously on the streets with vociferous sloganeering: Go back Jinping – a direct challenge to the obdurate president who has become unpopular in recent times. And then, overnight China relented under tremendous public pressure and lifted all restrictions and left it to the people to live with Covid. The Result: Deaths and overflowing mortuaries.
Reports from China over the last few days of deaths due to Covid are horrifying. I leave it to readers to visualize the terrible catastrophe that awaits the world as I would fail to guess the magnitude of likely deaths in the next few weeks and months.
60% of China’s population will be infected and millions would die in the next 2-3 months
Widespread apprehensions of likely deaths due to the present Covid spread in China are quite alarming. A noted epidemiologist from China, Eric Feigl-Ding claimed that more than 60% of China’s population and 10% of the world’s population would be infected by the deadly virus in the next three months, and deaths in millions. And he added that this is just the start. Another credible estimate by a top infectious disease expert is more frightening – 10 per cent of the Chinese population will die out of Covid. That translates to more than 15 crores.
As the Chinese authorities have failed to shore up the elderly vaccination drive, it has led to an abysmal upsurge in recent times, thus challenging the intensive care capacity and anti-viral medicines in all hospitals – it could spell disaster in near future for the country’s 1.5 billion citizens.
According to Feigl-Ding, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has decided to let the virus run free. “CCP’s current goal: “let whoever needs to be infected, infected, let whoever needs to die, die. Early infections, early deaths, early peak, early resumption of production,” he sarcastically quipped.
Potential impact on Chinese economy…
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has exerted downward pressure on the Chinese economy. The strict lockdown policy in China slowed down the economy and took retail sales and industrial production to their lowest levels since the outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020.
Impact of COVID-19 on China’s Economy after the recent outbreak
According to official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the country’s industrial production growth, which measures activity in the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors, fell to a negative 2.9% in April 2022 from 5% in March 2022, and further, it plummeted to negative 3.1% in November 2022.
The COVID-19 restrictions had a major impact on China’s consumer spending as retail sales in April 2022 decreased by 11.1% year on year. The consumption decreased considerably, with millions of people confined to their homes because of the lockdown. The job market in China also suffered, as the unemployment rate climbed to 6.1% in April 2022 from 5.8% in March 2022, the highest level since February 2020. The unemployment rate among young adults aged 16–24 reached an alarming 18.2% in April 2022.
China’s stock market has nose-dived in the recent past
China’s stock market index, the Shanghai Composite, which is widely considered the benchmark for the performance of the Chinese stock market, plunged 21.5% between the beginning of January 2022 and early November 2022.
Risks to China’s growth outlook are unevenly balanced and downside risks prevail. Economic disruptions due to strict COVID-related mobility restrictions across major cities and provinces pose a key downside risk and could further postpone the already delayed recovery of consumption and services, discourage private investment, disrupt trade flows, and reduce growth. Risks could also emanate from persistent stress in the real estate sector, which could trigger wider macroeconomic and financial repercussions.
The World’s manufacturing hub is losing many lucrative clients
China, as we all know is the manufacturing hub of the world. The economic growth of China in the last few decades has heavily depended upon its robust manufacturing base for overseas countries. But with the outbreak of the pandemic, most of the industrial units are either closed or working with reduced potential or manpower. The various apprehensions coupled with negative industrial production have forced many big companies to shift their manufacturing base from China. In a phased manner many big giants are moving to safer zones like India, Vietnam and Singapore. If the current trend continues the Chinese economy is ought to be impacted by an irreparable shock. It all will depend on how China combats its present pandemic crisis but chances of resurgence look very bleak.
Impact on Pakistan, Bangladesh and India
Pakistan as we are all aware is reeling under tremendous economic crises. Pakistan’s economy has to depend upon China’s support for bailing it out from possible bankruptcy. Although China is never a good ‘Samaritan’ – it always carries its malicious expansionist motive under its sleeve. Still, Pakistan cannot discard its China begging policy, knowing well of its destiny. So, Pakistan cannot abandon man-to-man contact with China and is unable to displease its current masters. Human contact with China will inevitably multiply and we may see an awful escalation of the pandemic in Pakistan. And with limited medical resources coupled with economic depression, Pakistan may face one of the worst crises in the recent future.
Bangladesh’s case is not as pathetic as its economy is growing in segments. But then the lack of quality medical amenities will leave a trail of miseries. The historic resilience displayed by Indians during the Corona Lockdown period will never be seen in any other nation. In case of a potential escalation of the pandemic, Bangladesh may not be in a probable position to impose a lockdown, thus more man-to-man contact may make situations worse.
India will be the least affected country in the world
On the contrary, geographically a neighbouring country – India is well placed to combat the lethal virus now. I may place on record that Corona has to some extent come as a blessing in disguise for India. The country after initial hiccups has fought all the crises with immaculate acumen and tremendous zeal and tremendous. It has not only come out of the economic crisis, that every country faced – still facing, but it has also attained enormous growth in every sector and at the moment leading the world in terms of overall economic growth. India has not only provided food to 80 crores (Population of US 33 Cr) of its citizens free for such a long period that the world may not even envisage – it has provided free food grains to many poor countries during the alarming situation of Covid19.
Covid19 – Blessing in disguise for India
As I reiterate, the pandemic might have come as a ‘blessing in disguise’ – nobody on this earth would have believed that India could be the first country to come out with the vaccination. Again, India has the credentials to boast that no other country, apart from India has attained 100% Vaccination.
India emerged as the most viable destination for shifting manufacturing base
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In the meantime, India has emerged as a prospective country for companies shifting out of China’s manufacturing base and moving out to viable locations. Many large companies have already started establishing their bases in India and many more are lined up for the feasible migration.
The manufacturing industry has grown leaps and bounds in the last two years with many alien investors, firms have shown keen interest in off-shoring their business to the land of the fastest-growing economy of the world. Besides, highly challenging but lucrative segments like ‘Chip-Industry’ has started making forays with inland-foreign players joining hands, which may take the country to the next level of transformation.
Government of India initiated mandatory restriction and timely precautionary measures
The Government of India has already initiated mandatory restrictions together with timely precautionary measures. Strict travel protocols are already in place where foreign travellers have been mandated to carry Covid negative certificates while entering the country. Medical facilities are robust as compared to the pre-Corona period in late 2019. Just to remind our readers, Corona started spreading in November 2019, or even earlier and we noticed in Feb-March 2020 – by that time the virus might have spread across the country. At that time we didn’t have minimum medical resources, so Indians kept napping.
Only country to have attained 100% vaccination
And now India is well prepared – have the most advanced medical facilities to thwart the pandemic, and above all the two doses of vaccination to the 100% population of the country must have boosted the immunity of all individuals.
I am quite confident that the deadly virus will have the least effect on the Indians as a whole – India waits to overpower Covid19 with all its might and resilient citizens. And one should not be shocked and surprised if this wave brings colossal loss for China and the rest of the world – but, can again prove to be a blessing in disguise. Who knows?
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