US Election 2024: The friendship between the Republican candidate Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is well-known. Trump has often referred to PM Modi as his good friend on public platforms. During Trump’s term, the strong bond between them was evident through several agreements between India and the United States. Even during the Democratic Party’s rule, India-U.S. relations remained stable, with PM Modi and President Joe Biden meeting warmly on multiple occasions. This warmth helped take the India-U.S. partnership to new heights.
As the U.S. goes to vote on November 5 for the 2024 Presidential Election, a major question arises: will Donald Trump or Kamala Harris be better for India’s interests?
Trump or Kamala Harris – Who Would Benefit India?
Choosing between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for India’s best interests seems challenging. For over a decade, U.S.-India relations have remained strong, whether under Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden. Experts suggest that whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris becomes the next President, India-U.S. relations are likely to stay stable. Several reasons back this thought.
India is crucial for U.S. trade policy. As a rapidly growing market, India has made its mark globally. No developed country, including the U.S., can afford to overlook India’s market. The two countries have billions of dollars in imports and exports, which positively impact the American economy. So, regardless of who wins the election, strong India-U.S. relations are expected to continue.
How Both Candidates Appeal to Indian-Americans
Both Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump aim to appeal to Indian-Americans. Statistically, Indian-American voters make up around 1% of the U.S. population. This may seem small, but these voters hold significant influence in America’s seven “swing states,” which can determine election outcomes. Therefore, maintaining a steady relationship with India benefits the U.S., no matter who becomes President.
What Indian Voters Have to Say About US Elections 2024
As the U.S. votes in the presidential elections of 2024, Indian-American voters are closely watching both candidates. Businessman Sant Singh Chatwal shared his view: “I think the mood of the voters is that they are going more for Kamala Harris because Trump has been very unstable…I am personally optimistic that she has a much better chance.”
President & CEO of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum, Mukesh Aghi, also weighed in, saying, “There is a sense of anxiety and uncertainty as to the outcome of the result. The results of the elections will not only have an impact in the US but globally…We do expect it to be a very close race. Over 50% of the voters have already cast their votes which means they are already convinced who their candidates are. Last minute, it is going to impact the swing voters in the swing states. Women and minority groups have come out to vote in large numbers. If Kamala Harris wins, there will be a continuation of the Biden approach, viewing India not only through the prism of trade but as a broader partner in the geopolitical and economic arena. This includes leveraging India’s position regarding China. The US cannot handle China on its own and needs partners. If Donald Trump comes in, the approach will be much more transactional. The policy agenda will shift dramatically, especially in the economic and trade front, including potential tariffs on Indian goods and concerns about technology transfer to India.”
The Influence of Indian-Origin People in the U.S.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, around 4.4 million Indian-origin people were living in the U.S. in 2020, and this number has only grown since. Additionally, thousands of Indian students go to the U.S. every year for higher education, contributing to the American economy and policies. Indian-Americans play a critical role in the U.S. economy and beyond.
The U.S. Stance on China
China’s economic influence is significant in Asia. However, India also has an important role, both directly and indirectly, in regional trade and policies. The U.S. has consistently maintained a tough stance on China, regardless of whether Trump or Biden was in power. To counter its rival China, the U.S. will likely want to keep stable ties with India. Experts suggest that whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump becomes the next President, U.S.-India relations will likely remain stable.
Who Leads in the Polls?
Various survey agencies have released their reports on the U.S. Presidential Election. According to The New York Times, Kamala Harris holds a slight lead in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Trump leads in Arizona. Reports from Real Clear Politics indicate a tight race between Trump and Harris.
Currently, Trump has a narrow 0.1% lead. The survey agency reports Trump leading in Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, while Harris has the edge in Michigan and Wisconsin. As the election draws close, the race remains unpredictable, with both candidates in a close battle.
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