Russia-Ukraine War: The armed revolt staged by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group was built upon the claim of Wagner forces facing deliberate attack from the Russian Army. Prigozhin organized an armed insurrection, took control of key facilities in southern Russia and proceeded towards Moscow for what he termed as ‘a march of justice’. The attempted insurrection is a direct result of hostilities between Wagner and Russian army since the beginning of conflict in Ukraine. Wagner was a key component of Russian campaign in Ukraine as the prolonged conflict meant direct deployment of Wagner troops in the operations being undertaken. The conflict highlighted obvious fractures in Russian political system which can generate direct implications on Ukrainian campaign.
Wagner’s involvement in Ukraine
Prior to start of Ukrainian campaign in early 2022, Wagner served Russia to assert its vested interest and provided government with option of plausible deniability. Wagner assisted Russian annexation of Crimea and its involvement in Donbas region of Ukraine in 2014 allowed Russian Army deniability. However this dynamic between two forces faced major alteration after beginning of 2022 conflict. The better trained Wagner was key to early Russian success but after suffering major losses, Wagner had to rely on mass recruitment. As the conflict prolonged and Russian side faced major setbacks both Russian Army and Wagner essentially became standardized force. The cooperation between two forces has fluctuated and has lead to a major conflict now.
Also Read: Wagner Group: Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin moves to Belarus to avoid arrest, says Kremlin
Putin’s influence and exposed vulnerability
Vladimir Putin is the axis around which major factions of Russian power revolve. He resolves major disputes among major power faction and dependency on Putin for conflict resolution reinforces his authority. After few months of war in Ukraine it became apparent that Putin was painted a clear picture of capabilities of both Russian and Ukrainian military. If insurrection had prolonged it would have provided Putin with opportunity to direct blame in face of agitation. Although the conflict is resolved, Russia has lost one of their pillars of Ukrainian campaign. This can cause a shift in power alignment as war in Ukraine brews on. The exposed vulnerability can provide Ukraine and West opportunity to refurbish their counterattack at a larger and rapid scale. Putin will attempt to reinstate magnitude of his authority which will have direct consequences on the war in Ukraine.
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