China is at the moment weathering severe domestic crisis. An economic recession owing to continued lockdown, shifting of foreign manufacturing units to other countries and then another wave of Covid pandemic has crippled the Chinese economy badly. Public resentment against the Chinese Government, especially against Jinping has put enormous pressure on Beijing – as a result the government could not crack down on the protestors who violently opposed another lock-down. The administration seems to have been cowed down by the daunting public demands and has gone into back foot. Will China invade Taiwan to divert attention from domestic concerns? Will China be able to avert domestic crisis by arousing jingoistic fervour in Taiwan issue?
China must be pondering on the various courses that may bail it out from its domestic crises and at the same time it can continue to pursue with its hegemonistic war-games. The delusion looks good, at the same time the outcome of such misadventure is loaded with dire consequences which may be more detrimental and devastating.
In a full-scale war massive destruction on both sides is inevitable
In a full-scale war against Taiwan, the United States and Japan would inevitably come in the defence of Taiwan. Western allied forces will join the US and together they will pound upon China. Nevertheless, there would be a “massive attrition” on both sides, dwarfing the destruction of the war in Ukraine. Russia, which is already enmeshed in Ukraine, may not venture in support of China. And even North-Korea’s fire-works will not work enough to bulldoze the American camp.
Eventually, if China pursues lightning invasion of Taiwan, the assumption is – Taiwan will not give up quickly.
In the ensuing war, the US may strike the Chinese invasion force with vengeance and Japan will be sucked into the vortex, both the US and Japan would lose artilleries and forces in the bargain, but the loss on China would be colossal.
Such losses would lead both the sides to huge economic crisis with prolonged downturn. The injury to the Chinese would be more grievous and will take years for coming back to normalcy.
China may adopt diplomatic isolation, grey zone pressure or economic coercion
The Chinese leadership might adopt a strategy of diplomatic isolation, grey zone pressure, or economic coercion against Taiwan; even if China opts for military force, this might take the form of a blockade rather than an outright invasion. The risk of invasion is real enough and potentially so destructive that China would do the analyses more than once.
Notably, US would also contemplate on benefits of defending Taiwan that should outweigh the prospective costs or damage.
China regards Taiwan as a renegade province awaiting reunification with the mainland, by force if necessary. Taiwan says it will defend its freedoms and democracy.
The analyses comes at a time when US-China ties have plunged, with Taiwan emerging as a major thorn in the bush for China, and stands as a litmus test of US resolve. China sees the US as eroding its stand on its “one-China” policy, which does not recognise Taiwan as an independent entity.
The US insists on sticking to its policy. The visit to Taiwan in August 2022 by then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi drew a furious response from China, which, among other things, suspended diplomatic engagements with Washington and mounted large-scale military drills around Taiwan. China-US ties plummeted to a dangerous new low after the visit.
But after months of speculation, Chinese President Xi Jinping met his US counterpart Joe Biden in Bali in November, where the two leaders – at their first in-person meeting since Biden took office in 2020 – agreed to restart normal diplomatic engagement.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit Beijing soon. State Department spokesman Ned Price last week said the focus of the visit would be on managing the Sino-US relationship responsibly to ensure “competition does not veer into conflict”.
Also Read: US current policies and challenges vis-à-vis bilateral relation with India – An analysis
The Republican majority in US house of Congress are all China hawks
Meanwhile in Washington, the new House has convened with a Republican majority full of China hawks who want to push against Beijing – and find plenty of support from the Democrats. In the face of the bipartisan consensus, which has proclaimed China as an “enemy” and an “existential threat”, Biden would be accused of being too soft on China.
US policy should evolve around maintaining Status-quo
“The sole parameter on which US policy should evolve is whether it helps preserve peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait – and not whether it solves the question of Taiwan once and for all or keeps Taiwan permanently in the United States’ camp.
“Once viewed this way, the real aim becomes clear: to convince leaders in Beijing and Taipei that time is on their side, forestalling conflict. Everything the United States does should be geared towards that goal.”
There is a very easy way of avoiding war on Taiwan – just preserve the status quo; in all its respects, that is all you need to do. Because everyone knows how sensitive the Taiwan issue is; because if you push the Chinese on Taiwan, they have to react.
Also Read: Pariksha Pe Charcha 2023: Hold your knots tight to meet PM Modi on Jan 27
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