Vladimir Putin: Vladimir Putin looks at the war in Ukraine as a watershed when Russia finally stood up to the West. However, there are fears that he has committed his country to a long and fruitless drain on lives and resources.
When the Russian president ordered troops into Ukraine on February 24 last year, he expected to win quickly, earn a place in history alongside the tsars, and teach the United States a lesson about Russia’s revival since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Russia vilified in the west
He was wrong. The war has killed or wounded hundreds of thousands; Russia and Russians are vilified in the West as aggressors; and his army now faces a resilient Ukraine backed by an expanding US-led NATO military alliance.
One senior Russian source with knowledge of decision-making said Putin’s hopes of burnishing his reputation had been dashed.
“Ahead, it will be even more difficult and more costly for both Ukraine and Russia,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Economic losses on this scale are not worth a few conquered territories.”
Opponents fear retribution
The source said he believed many shared his view, although to say so publicly would invite swift retribution.
Putin says Moscow is locked in an existential battle with an arrogant West that wants to carve up Russia and its vast resources. However, Ukraine and the West have rejected this narrative.
Putin may have caused so many geopolitical shock waves but has no serious rival for power so far, according to five senior Russian sources close to decision-making. And with all public dissent suppressed, the 70-year-old need not fear the presidential election that looms in March 2024.
Consequences may reverberate for some time
The full strategic and economic consequences of the war may reverberate for some time, however.
“I don’t believe in a major offensive, or in the possibility of a Russian victory against the whole civilised world,” said a second senior source close to the Kremlin, who also declined to be named.
The source said Russia was at a disadvantage in both military technology and motivation, but that the war would still continue “for a very long time”.
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